Steve Koczela

Guest Contributor

About Steve Koczela

Steve Koczela is the President of The MassINC Polling Group, where he has grown the organization from its infancy to a nationally known and respected polling provider. During the 2014 election cycle, MPG conducted election polling for WBUR, the continuation of a three-year partnership. Koczela again led the endeavor, producing polls which came within one point of the margin in both the Massachusetts gubernatorial and U.S. Senate Elections. He was also lead writer for Poll Vault, WBUR’s political reporting section during the 2014 Election Cycle.

He has led survey research programs for the U.S. Department of State in Iraq, in key states for President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, and has conducted surveys and polls on behalf of many private corporations. Koczela brings a deep understanding of the foundations of public opinion and a wide ranging methodological expertise. He earned U.S. Department of State recognition for his leading edge work on sample evaluation in post conflict areas using geospatial systems.

Koczela is frequent guest on WBUR as well as many other news and talk programs in Massachusetts and elsewhere. His polling analysis is often cited in local, state, and national media outlets. He currently serves as President of the New England Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (NEAAPOR). Koczela holds a Master’s degree in Marketing Research from the University of Wisconsin and is a veteran of the war in Iraq.

About Steve Koczela

Steve Koczela is the President of The MassINC Polling Group, where he has grown the organization from its infancy to a nationally known and respected polling provider. During the 2014 election cycle, MPG conducted election polling for WBUR, the continuation of a three-year partnership. Koczela again led the endeavor, producing polls which came within one point of the margin in both the Massachusetts gubernatorial and U.S. Senate Elections. He was also lead writer for Poll Vault, WBUR’s political reporting section during the 2014 Election Cycle.

He has led survey research programs for the U.S. Department of State in Iraq, in key states for President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, and has conducted surveys and polls on behalf of many private corporations. Koczela brings a deep understanding of the foundations of public opinion and a wide ranging methodological expertise. He earned U.S. Department of State recognition for his leading edge work on sample evaluation in post conflict areas using geospatial systems.

Koczela is frequent guest on WBUR as well as many other news and talk programs in Massachusetts and elsewhere. His polling analysis is often cited in local, state, and national media outlets. He currently serves as President of the New England Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (NEAAPOR). Koczela holds a Master’s degree in Marketing Research from the University of Wisconsin and is a veteran of the war in Iraq.

Stories by Steve Koczela

Polling standards changing rapidly

Polling standards changing rapidly

Probability-based sampling no longer only game in town

THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION of Public Opinion Research is a rather staid institution. Its annual conference is four days of panel discussions on complex statistical problems in the field. (Sample conference T-shirt slogan: “The Weighting is the Hardest Part.”)  Many association members are researchers and statisticians who conduct important government surveys such as the US Census,(...)

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Commuter rail ridership numbers don’t add up

Commuter rail ridership numbers don’t add up

Official data point in every direction

COMMUTER RAIL RIDERSHIP is up. No, it’s down. Actually, it’s held steady. These three statements cannot all be true. And yet, all three are supported by official data collected and published by the MBTA and the Massachusetts Department of Transportation in recent years. As leaders on Beacon Hill weigh the future of the MBTA, they do(...)

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Olympics numbers don’t add up

Olympics numbers don’t add up

Poll data don’t support 2024 claims

BOSTON MAYOR MARTY WALSH and representatives of Boston 2024 have made claims about levels of public support for the idea of a Boston Olympics that are not supported by the numbers. Here are a few: Boston 2024 President Dan O’Connell said on WGBH’s Greater Boston, “I’ve sensed […] overwhelming support for pursuing this effort.” O’Connell(...)

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Bromancing the vote

Bromancing the vote

Male voters put Baker in the corner office. Now what?

CHARLIE BAKER SQUEAKED into the governor’s office by such a narrow margin that pretty much any demographic group can claim to be responsible for the last few votes that pushed him over the line. A shift of a few points in the vote among women, unenrolled voters, young people, urban dwellers, first-time homeowners, upper-income Democratic(...)

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Not exactly party time in Massachusetts

Not exactly party time in Massachusetts

The number of unenrolled voters is climbing to historic highs

political parties in Massachusetts are approaching a crossroads, as fewer new registrants choose to affiliate with either party and the number of unenrolled voters climbs to historic highs. Since 1978, the number of unenrolled voters in Massachusetts has soared by 97 percent, while the two major parties each added just 9 percent to their rolls.(...)

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Is DCF really stretched thin?

Is DCF really stretched thin?

Agency’s budget has declined, but so has its caseload

Many of the stories covering the recent tragedies on the watch of the Department of Children and Families tend to portray an agency stretched thin by budget cuts over the last several years. Yet a close look at the available data suggests the lower budget for the agency since 2009 corresponds closely with a drop(...)

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Boston’s challenge for the GOP

Boston’s challenge for the GOP

GOP has trouble connecting with non-white voters

The partisan divide between cities and less urbanized areas is growing into one of the defining characteristics of Massachusetts politics. The suburbs are often held up as the place where elections are won or lost, but a steady long-term shift in urban voting is rendering suburban voters less able to change the outcome. Cities’ relatively(...)

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Outsider act of Warren, Patrick hard to follow

Outsider act of Warren, Patrick hard to follow

Comparisons weak and getting weaker

To outsiders looking to make a splash in Massachusetts politics, Deval Patrick and Elizabeth Warren are guiding lights. Each ascended as political novices from relative unknown to statewide officeholders, winning in their first run for office. Observers of (and candidates in) the current gubernatorial contest have pointed to their examples to explore whether other newcomers(...)

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No good data on heroin epidemic

No good data on heroin epidemic

Everyone is convinced there is a public health emergency, but there’s no numbers to prove it

A correction has been made to this story and the accompanying chart. Information on the correction is available at the bottom of the story. Gov. Deval Patrick declared it a public health emergency. Senate President Therese Murray is calling it an epidemic. Everywhere you turn there are reports that opiate addiction and overdoses are out(...)

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State salary numbers don’t tell full story

State salary numbers don’t tell full story

Our data dive provides some context

To read the headlines in the two Boston papers last week would lead one to think that government salaries are spiraling out of control: “More than 1,000 state employees get pay hiked over $100,000,” blared the Herald. The Globe fronted with the raw number: “Nearly 9,000 state workers earned at least $100,000.” The Herald went(...)

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