AS MASSACHUSETTS Sen. Senator Elizabeth Warren joins Joe Biden atop the Democratic primary field, her rivals have sharpened their attacks on her positions, most notably around her support for Senator Bernie Sanders’s “Medicare for All” proposal. Today, Warren doubled down, releasing a massively complex and detailed plan to pay for her $20.5 trillion extension of […]
Steve Koczela
Steve Koczela is the President of The MassINC Polling Group, where he has grown the organization from its infancy to a nationally known and respected polling provider. During the 2014 election cycle, MPG conducted election polling for WBUR, the continuation of a three-year partnership. Koczela again led the endeavor, producing polls which came within one point of the margin in both the Massachusetts gubernatorial and U.S. Senate Elections. He was also lead writer for Poll Vault, WBUR’s political reporting section during the 2014 Election Cycle.
He has led survey research programs for the U.S. Department of State in Iraq, in key states for President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, and has conducted surveys and polls on behalf of many private corporations. Koczela brings a deep understanding of the foundations of public opinion and a wide ranging methodological expertise. He earned U.S. Department of State recognition for his leading edge work on sample evaluation in post conflict areas using geospatial systems.
Koczela is frequent guest on WBUR as well as many other news and talk programs in Massachusetts and elsewhere. His polling analysis is often cited in local, state, and national media outlets. He currently serves as President of the New England Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (NEAAPOR). Koczela holds a Master’s degree in Marketing Research from the University of Wisconsin and is a veteran of the war in Iraq.
Posted inNews Analysis
Polling, like everything else, is moving online
HE’S NOT EVEN officially running, but we now have two polls showing Rep. Joe Kennedy III with a sizable lead over Sen. Ed Markey in the Democratic primary for US Senate. The first, from Change Research, showed Kennedy with an eye-popping 17 point lead. That margin raised questions about how seriously to take an online […]
Posted inPolitics
Wait wait, don’t primary me
It used to be both polite and practical to wait your turn to run for Congress in Massachusetts. Party leaders and insiders frowned on impertinence, and the very occasional primary challenges that happened were rarely successful. That era is ending. We’ve seen two longtime incumbents unseated in the last few cycles, and the 2020 congressional […]
Posted inPolitics
Who’s looking at a Markey-Kennedy race?
AN ENIGMATIC TELEPHONE SURVEY raised eyebrows among the Massachusetts political establishment this week. The poll, first reported by POLITICO Massachusetts, pitted Massachusetts Congressman Joe Kennedy III against incumbent Senator Ed Markey in a hypothetical 2020 Democratic primary. The survey raised the specter of a race between the longest serving member of the state congressional delegation and the […]
Posted inOpinion
Keeping politics in check
I’M AT CARRIE NATION, a prohibition-era themed Beacon Hill bar just down the street from the Massachusetts State House. On an island of tables floating between a legislative fundraiser in the front room and a bar full of power drinks after work, there are eight chess games underway. The room is noisy with friendly conversation […]
Posted inNews Analysis
Shutdown sending Trump poll numbers down
“IF WE DON’T GET what we want … I am proud to shut down the government for border security, Chuck.” That, of course, was President Donald Trump in an unexpectedly televised Oval Office confrontation with now House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. No one but Donald Trump knows for certain why […]
Posted inNews Analysis
For GOP, is the lesson be more like Charlie?
MASSACHUSETTS REPUBLICANS suffered yet another electoral drubbing last week. Apart from Gov. Charlie Baker, every Republican candidate for statewide office got trounced by 24 to 46 point margins, based on unofficial returns. None of the congressional races were even remotely competitive. The legislative caucus shed three more members, further reducing their already paltry numbers. Republican […]
Posted inNews Analysis
Baker shows a Republican can do well in cities
ON HIS WAY to a landslide victory this week, Charlie Baker did something unusual for a Republican these days. He won urban areas, pulling 55 percent in the state’s 20 largest cities and towns, according to unofficial returns from the AP. This is not normal fare for our politics here in Massachusetts, or really anywhere […]
Posted inNews Analysis
Charlie Baker and the incredible vanishing gender gap
Charlie Baker has bridged the gender gap. Nationally, Democratic women are fleeing the Republican party, threatening to swing a host of offices to Democrats, while men still tilt right. But women here in Massachusetts prefer Baker over Democrat Jay Gonzalez by about the same margins as do male voters. This was by no means expected. […]
Posted inNews Analysis
The duel over Diehl
THE BIT MOMENT in this week’s gubernatorial debate between Governor Charlie Baker and his Democratic opponent Jay Gonzalez was not about being governor at all. It came down to a duel over the Republican candidate for Senate, Geoff Diehl. Diehl was the Massachusetts co-chair for Trump’s presidential campaign, and has closely aligned himself with the […]