ISO study warns of precarious energy future

Most scenarios envision emergency actions, including rolling blackouts

A NEW STUDY by the operator of the region’s power grid warns that without additional natural gas pipeline capacity New England will face a precarious energy future, where emergency actions such as rolling blackouts are likely to become a reality on several days a year.

The fuel security study by ISO-New England examined 23 different scenarios for electricity generation during the winter of 2024-2025 and found that in all but the most optimistic case some sort of emergency action would be necessary. In addition to rolling blackouts, where power to a rotating group of customers is turned off temporarily to reduce pressure on the grid, other emergency measures include tapping the system’s last-resort operating reserves and appeals to the public to reduce energy usage.

“Current trends are pushing the New England power system on a path toward greater fuel-security risks,” the report warned. It called for collaboration among the six New England states to address the risks, and suggested it may be necessary for the grid operator to seek authority to pay nuclear and oil-fired power plants more money to continue operating and not retire.

While the study appeared to warn of what could happen without additional gas pipeline infrastructure, the president of ISO-New England said the goal of the report was not to bolster support for a new pipeline. Gordon van Welie said the report was an acknowledgement that more pipeline capacity was not going to get built, primarily because of political opposition in Massachusetts, steep financial hurdles, and growing resistance to new pipelines in New York. Van Welie said it was time for policymakers to move on to Plan B.

“Just looking at the landscape, it looks pretty pessimistic for new pipeline infrastructure, so the region is going to have to work with what we’ve got,” he said.

Gordon van Welie

What we’ve got is a system that is heavily reliant on natural gas, but lacking sufficient pipeline capacity to meet the demand for gas for both heat and power generation during cold winter periods like the region experienced in late December and early January. In such situations, the region’s fuel mix for electricity generation shifts away from natural gas and toward nuclear power, oil, and coal.

The recent cold snap was an early preview of what’s to come. As more natural gas was used to heat homes, pipeline constraints forced up the price of natural gas and prompted generators to switch to oil and coal. Oil, which normally accounts for 1-2 percent of electricity generation, was the fuel used to produce a third of the region’s electricity during the brief cold snap. More than 2 million barrels of oil were burned over 15 days – more than was burned during the rest of 2017 and all of 2016 combined.

Toward the end of the 15-day period, the grid operator ordered generators to cut back on their use of oil to avoid depleting the available stocks. Van Welie said the situation was touch and go toward the end of the 15-day period. “During the tail end of that cold snap, we were very poorly positioned to survive a large contingency on the system,” he said.

ISO-New England’s job is to keep the lights on, but the new study suggests that task will be complicated over the coming years. Still, there are so many variables involved – weather, power plant retirements, the growth of renewables, the embrace of liquefied natural gas, and the development of battery storage technology to name a few – that it’s difficult to accurately predict the future. The study ignored the relative cost of various forms of energy in assembling its analysis,

The study developed a reference case based on current trends and weather patterns from the winter of 2014-2015. It assumed plants capable of generating 1,500 megawatts of electricity would retire and the region would offset those retirements with LNG imports of 1 billion cubic feet a day, electricity imports of 2,500 megawatts, and 6,600 megawatts of renewables. Generators capable of producing electricity with either gas or oil would receive two deliveries of oil over the winter under the reference case.

Under those conditions, the study forecast 14 hours of rolling blackouts over six days. The study estimated the system would operate with its last-resort reserves for over 53 hours. The study said other emergency measures, including appeals to the public to conserve energy, would be implemented over 76 hours.

Van Welie said all of the emergency measures are rarely used by the regional grid operator. Aides said the last time rolling blackouts were implemented was in 2012 for less than an hour after a lightning strike damaged the transmission system in the Boston area. Prior to that, rolling blackouts were implemented in Connecticut to help stabilize the grid after the Northeast blackout of 2003, which plunged parts of New York City into darkness.

Seven scenarios were more optimistic than the ISO’s reference case, assuming, for example, more LNG imports, more renewables, and more oil shipments to power plants capable of running on oil. In each instance, the amount of emergency actions declined to minimal levels, although a few hours of rolling blackouts were forecast with three of the scenarios.

The remaining scenarios tweaked key variables or combinations of variables in negative directions or forecast what would happen if winter-long outages occurred at one of four key facilities, including a compressor station on a major natural gas pipeline, the Millstone Nuclear Power Station in Connecticut, and LNG import facilities in Boston and New Brunswick.

The study indicated the Millstone and compressor station outages, along with higher-than-expected retirements of existing power plants, would prompt the most blackouts and other emergency measures.

The study’s projections about electricity imports and renewables seemed very conservative. For example, the reference case assumed no offshore wind and no new clean energy imports from Canada by 2024. Yet Massachusetts is in the midst of offshore wind and clean energy procurements that are likely to bring new power to the region before then. (After this story was posted, a spokeswoman for ISO-New England disputed the notion that the agency’s projections for imports and renewables in 2024 were conservative, noting that 10 scenarios incorporate higher levels of renewables and imports than the reference case. Several scenarios raised the level of renewables from 6,600 megawatts to 8,000 megawatts, including 1,400 megawatts from offshore wind. Some scenarios also increased imports from the reference case level of 2,500 megawatts to as much as 3,500 megawatts, including a 1,000-megawatt transmission line from Quebec proposed by several firms participating in the Massachusetts clean energy procurement.)

The ISO study could factor into the state’s deliberations on the offshore wind procurement. The three companies vying for power contracts have different views on how quickly the 1,600 megawatt procurement should be awarded. One competitor wants the state to award bigger contracts faster, while another favors smaller procurements that would allow time for a land-based support industry to develop in Massachusetts. The ISO study suggests bigger procurements could be more advantageous for the state’s energy reliability.

Power plant retirements could be the biggest wildcard for the region. The reference case assumed the retirement by 2024 of plants capable of generating 1,500 megawatts of electricity. But a worst-case scenario indicated retirements could lead to the shutdown of as much as 4,500 megawatts of generating capability. Van Welie said oil and nuclear power plants are likely to face increasing financial and, in the case of oil, environmental pressure to retire. He predicted plants that run on oil will find it harder and hard to run.

“Over time what’s going to happen is we’re going to see the retirement of this fleet,” he said. “That’s a desirable thing from a policy point of view because we won’t achieve decarbonization unless they retire. On the other hand, we are dependent on them, particularly with the fuel constraints that we have. So it’s a real conundrum.”

Van Welie said it may be necessary to find a way to make it financially attractive for uneconomical power plants to remain in operation. Still, he said, there are no guarantees. He said the ISO offered the coal-fired Brayton Point power plant financial incentives to stay open but the plant’s owners decided to shut it down anyway.

Meet the Author

Bruce Mohl

Editor, CommonWealth

About Bruce Mohl

Bruce Mohl is the editor of CommonWealth magazine. Bruce came to CommonWealth from the Boston Globe, where he spent nearly 30 years in a wide variety of positions covering business and politics. He covered the Massachusetts State House and served as the Globe’s State House bureau chief in the late 1980s. He also reported for the Globe’s Spotlight Team, winning a Loeb award in 1992 for coverage of conflicts of interest in the state’s pension system. He served as the Globe’s political editor in 1994 and went on to cover consumer issues for the newspaper. At CommonWealth, Bruce helped launch the magazine’s website and has written about a wide range of issues with a special focus on politics, tax policy, energy, and gambling. Bruce is a graduate of Ohio Wesleyan University and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He lives in Dorchester.

About Bruce Mohl

Bruce Mohl is the editor of CommonWealth magazine. Bruce came to CommonWealth from the Boston Globe, where he spent nearly 30 years in a wide variety of positions covering business and politics. He covered the Massachusetts State House and served as the Globe’s State House bureau chief in the late 1980s. He also reported for the Globe’s Spotlight Team, winning a Loeb award in 1992 for coverage of conflicts of interest in the state’s pension system. He served as the Globe’s political editor in 1994 and went on to cover consumer issues for the newspaper. At CommonWealth, Bruce helped launch the magazine’s website and has written about a wide range of issues with a special focus on politics, tax policy, energy, and gambling. Bruce is a graduate of Ohio Wesleyan University and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He lives in Dorchester.

Van Welie described his organization’s study as a reality check, a way to kick-start discussions among the six New England states about how to address the region’s future fuel security. He said doing nothing is not an option.

“If the constraints are not relieved, we will, over time, increase the risk profile of the system. What the study shows is that that could end up with fairly severe reliability consequences,” he said. “There’s a cost to doing nothing. There’s a cost of inaction.”

  • QuincyQuarry.com

    Properly feeding ISO grids so as to assure a reliable power supply for the public is an extremely complicated proposition. As such, there are ample as well as good reasons for expressing concerns within ISO-New England’s just released fuel security study.

    Valid concerns include that new gas line capacity appears unlikely given mostly locally-based political reasons.

    At the same time, electric power transmission capacity needed to import Canadian hydro power is also facing local opposition.

    Further, solar and wind power are at best but limited options given the impacts of weather upon them as well as are higher cost supply options – and especially so if battery storage options are to be added in the mix.

    In the meanwhile, considerable production capacity is going away as coal power plants are retired and the Plymouth Nuclear Power Station is scheduled for decommissioning.in June of next year.

    That and what happens when generation capacity takes an unexpected hit when demand is high and reserve capacity thus tight is a perfectly valid concern.

    Granted, conservation efforts given new and improved technology have for decades arguably been what has finessed a lack of new power generation capacity development, however, sooner or later one has to assume that this hat will run short of rabbits.

    Finally, it should prove interesting to see how public opinion might change as locals are hit with massive electric bills given the recent extended stint of arctic cold weather and which limited as well as expensive power generation options further fueled the spiking of consumers’ utility bills.

    After all, the underlying power generation supply cost increases are de facto proxies for just how tight are the supply options for ISO-New England and which was its fuel security study’s key point of concern.

  • donkreis

    Fake news, Mr. Mohl! The Operational Fuel-Security Analysis does NOT, as you claim, warn that unless we build more pipeline capacity our energy future is precarious. Wisely, the analysis pointedly and explicitly avoids discussing the effect of adding pipeline capacity . . . it simply assumes no new pipelines. Page 38 of the report lays out a scenario — relying on increased renewables and imports (presumably from Hydro Quebec, by building one or more of the transmission projects under review in your state’s 83D process) — that would lead to no load shedding. You have allowed yourself and your publication to become a persistent shill for pipeline developers who want to build projects and force electric customers to pay for them. The real news made by the ISO New England study is that we have other options.
    Also, back when I was in the journalism business we used to reach out for more than one perspective on important news developments, rather than simply rely on the self-serving assertions by the proponent of a particular viewpoint advanced by a particular study. ISO New England has a very capable publicity (uh, external relations) operation in-house without your publication signing on as a wholly owned subsidiary.
    That said, Mr. Van Welie and his team deserve a lot of credit for crafting a reasonably comprehensive and neutrally worded assessment. You can quibble with the scenarios they assumed, and the black-box nature of their analysis, but altogether it is, unlike your account, a calm and rational discussion of the effect various policy choices could have on reliability over the next several years. It’s important to keep in mind that we do not simply have to pull the trigger on one of these scenarios, sit back and watch the results — the situation is a dynamic one; policymakers and stakeholders have a lot of room to refine and optimize as things unfold.

    • macmac166

      Let’s just jettison all the investment made in natural gas plants, which follows all the jettison of investments made in nuclear plants. Hydro-Quebec has been patiently waiting for this day. And it just took a few years of becoming prisoners of the feeble greening of New England.

    • Amanda Middle

      Thanks for your comment, but i think you miss the point. It’s a fuel security study and they took an option for the primary fuel off the table. If you read the story, you’ll see that ISO took pipeline expansion off the table because they don’t think it will ever happen. It’s all explained very clearly. Thanks

  • 1barbaradurkin

    Economic and environmental disaster are invited by legislators too lazy or too corrupt to do due dilligence.

    Vineyard Wind principals include Avangrid (Iberdrola)
    11/19/17:
    ”Eversource Energy and Avangrid Inc. caused New England electric customers to get overcharged by $3.6 billion using an “anti-competitive scheme” to manipulate energy prices, according to a lawsuit filed in federal court..”
    http://www.4-traders.com/amp/EVERSOURCE-ENERGY-20814111/news/Lawsuit-claims-Eversource-manipulated-energy-prices-25538207/?__twitter_impression=true

    Due diligence is severely lacking on the part of legislators foisting the offshore wind mandates upon citizens.

    A landmark judgment issued by the U.K. Supreme Court in July 2017 informs there is an industry-wide, fundamental failure in the offshore wind turbine standard design code (J101). (Marine Executive article link below).

    The U.S. has adopted the U.K. offshore wind turbine design that has fundamentally failed. Read more-

    Supreme Court judgement:
    https://maritime-executive.com/article/landmark-case-changes-offshore-wind-legal-landscape

    Industry Tech source explains in detail what went wrong with monopoles historically “sinking”, “shifting” and “corroding”-

    ‘Offshore Wind Foundations: Research Needs And Innovation Opportunities – Wind Systems Magazine’

    “The need for design refinements can be traced back to the fundamental goal of design standards, which is to ensure that resistance is larger than the applied loads. The offshore wind industry, however, whose towers differ substantially from oil platforms in terms of loads and resistance, has adopted foundation design protocols of oil and gas installations but has selectively addressed only some of the characteristic differences of the two industries, and what’s more, has done so independently of each other. This has led to offshore wind foundation standards that lack an overall design philosophy, and have large built-in uncertainties in the characterization of loads and resistance — wind speed, wave height, wave kinematics and slam forces, steel and soil stiffness and strength, and soil-foundation interaction — uncertainties that are, in fact, disproportionately larger than the narrow window of performance requirements of offshore wind installations…”
    http://www.windsystemsmag.com/article/detail/753/offshore-wind-foundations-research-needs-and-innovation-opportunities

    COSTS UNSCHEDULED MAINTENANCE
    Cable installation and repair cost-
    Cable problems, (more than 70% of wind project insurance claims), repair average cost is U.S. $6,450,630.08. Subsea Cable Installation cost averages $6 million per mile per Sue Tierney Analysis Group

    Offshore Cabling 2017
    2017-03-07 – 2017-03-09
    Cable damages remain an ongoing issue with average costs of € 5 million per repair. Submarine cable repairs account for more than 70 % of all insurance claims of installed wind parks.http://www.offshorewind.biz/events/offshore-cabling-2017/

    Offshore wind turbines’ foundations are cracking with same specs as Cape Wind, Siemens 3.6 MW.
    http://renews.biz/104720/zpmc-liable-for-gabbard-cracks/

    Also, Mitigation Strategies to address corrosion have failed-

    Offshore wind turbines are corroding internally & externally & industry is challenged to fix these ongoing problems.

    http://www.materialsperformance.com/articles/material-selection-design/2016/03/corrosion-risks-and-mitigation-strategies-for-offshore-wind-turbine-foundations

  • Jon

    Massachusetts is outsourcing (NIMBY at the state level) its energy requirements and at the same time forcing the retirement of existing in-state power plants. Even if ratepayers don’t see much of an increase as a result of this first green or clean procurement process, by the end of its term or expiration, the rest of the NE states and Canada, with actual generation assets, will know Massachusetts has no alternative or competitive choices. This is not a diverse energy supply and not sustainable over the long term.