705 to 2,580 COVID-19 deaths projected in Mass.
Baker says surge peak will be April 10-20
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A GROUP OF EXPERTS assembled by the Baker administration is projecting that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases during the course of the pandemic in Massachusetts is going to rise 6 to 22 times higher than it is currently, resulting in a death toll ranging from 705 to 2,580.
Gov. Charlie Baker said the wide range of the estimate reflects the many variables and unknowns involved. He said the numbers would continually be revised as the surge unfolds between April 10 and April 20, and said it was prudent to plan for a worst-case scenario.
“The next three to four weeks are going to very difficult,” he warned.
In practical terms, the group of experts is predicting that somewhere between .7 percent and 1.5 percent of the state’s population will catch the disease, and 1.5 percent of those infected will die.
The governor said the projections are based largely on what happened in Wuhan, China, adjusted to reflect the size of Massachusetts, the Bay State’s lower population density, its lower smoking rate, and its earlier adoption of social distancing measures.
Baker also said the death rate from COVID-19 in Massachusetts is currently lower than in other states and countries, and could possibly be revised upward.
As the Baker administration prepares for the surge, the governor said his focus is on expanding hospital bed capacity, adding to the medical workforce, purchasing personal protection equipment, and continuing to ramp up testing capacity for COVID-19.
The administration on Thursday purchased about 1 million surgical-grade N95 masks from the Chinese company Tencent, and was shipping the masks home on a jet owned by the Kraft family and the New England Patriots. Baker described the purchase and delivery as a humanitarian relief mission that required cooperation from the Kraft family and high-ranking officials in the US and Chinese governments.
“This was a total team effort on every level,” he said.
Marylou Sudders, the governor’s secretary of human services, also said Partners HealthCare is contracting with Ohio-based Battelle to set up a mask disinfectant facility in an empty Kmart in Somerville. Sudders said the facility has the capacity to disinfect 80,000 masks a day at a price of $3.25 apiece. The disinfectant facility should allow masks to be reused 5 to 10 times.
Battelle expects to open the facility on Monday. It already has three other facilities up and running in West Jefferson, Ohio; Long Island, New York; and Seattle.
Baker said current projections suggest hospital facilities will come up 500 intensive care beds short at the peak of the surge. The governor said he is trying to address that shortfall in a number of ways, primarily by adding beds that can be used to step-down COVID-19 patients out of intensive care settings as quickly as possible.
He said the state is setting up a 250-bed field hospital at the DCU Center in Worcester and looking to add at least two other locations. Options under consideration, the governor said, include the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center, Joint Base Cape Cod, and the old Massachusetts Mutual building in Springfield.
The governor is also adding beds at nursing facilities to handle patients who have been stabilized in hospitals.
Baker numerous times has referenced large orders he is placing for equipment and personal protection equipment, but he has not explained where the money is coming from. He said the money for most of the state’s purchases is coming from a number of accounts that he expects to be reimbursed by federal aid and disaster relief funds.
“People were not abiding by the rules and guidelines associated with gatherings and distance, pretty much everything, at the beaches last weekend,” Baker said. “Most of the time we’ve tried to respect people’s willingness to play by the rules. In this particular instance, we got a lot of input from a lot of places that people were not treating any of the distancing rules at the beaches the way they should be. Our solution to that is if people aren’t going to play by the rules, if it’s too big of a temptation, then we’re going to get rid of the parking.”