State hits projected surge peak in new COVID-19 cases

Baker had projected peak would come closer to April 20

THE STATE REPORTED 2,615 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, a record high and above the target level Gov. Charlie Baker has set for the peak of the surge.

“Our model puts the peak at around 2,500 new confirmed cases per day,” Baker said on Friday, when the state was hovering in the 2,100 range.

Presumably Baker will want to see that number repeated for several days in a row before declaring the state at the peak of the surge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. He had indicated on Friday that modeling indicated the surge would come closer to April 20.

Meet the Author

Bruce Mohl

Editor, CommonWealth

About Bruce Mohl

Bruce Mohl is the editor of CommonWealth magazine. Bruce came to CommonWealth from the Boston Globe, where he spent nearly 30 years in a wide variety of positions covering business and politics. He covered the Massachusetts State House and served as the Globe’s State House bureau chief in the late 1980s. He also reported for the Globe’s Spotlight Team, winning a Loeb award in 1992 for coverage of conflicts of interest in the state’s pension system. He served as the Globe’s political editor in 1994 and went on to cover consumer issues for the newspaper. At CommonWealth, Bruce helped launch the magazine’s website and has written about a wide range of issues with a special focus on politics, tax policy, energy, and gambling. Bruce is a graduate of Ohio Wesleyan University and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He lives in Dorchester.

About Bruce Mohl

Bruce Mohl is the editor of CommonWealth magazine. Bruce came to CommonWealth from the Boston Globe, where he spent nearly 30 years in a wide variety of positions covering business and politics. He covered the Massachusetts State House and served as the Globe’s State House bureau chief in the late 1980s. He also reported for the Globe’s Spotlight Team, winning a Loeb award in 1992 for coverage of conflicts of interest in the state’s pension system. He served as the Globe’s political editor in 1994 and went on to cover consumer issues for the newspaper. At CommonWealth, Bruce helped launch the magazine’s website and has written about a wide range of issues with a special focus on politics, tax policy, energy, and gambling. Bruce is a graduate of Ohio Wesleyan University and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He lives in Dorchester.

The percentage of tested people who tested positive was 33 percent, even though the number of tests administered set a new high at 7,954. The number of fatalities rose by 70 to 756, which boosted the rate of deaths per positive cases to nearly 3 percent, up from 2.7 percent on Friday.

Once again deaths at nursing homes played a big role in the rising number of fatalities. The state data indicate deaths at nursing homes accounted for 45 percent of all fatalities, and 43 percent of the 70-person increase in fatalities in Sunday’s report.

The state data break down COVID-19 cases and fatalities by county. Middlesex County reported the most deaths at 149, followed by Hampden County at 105. Adjusted for population, tiny Franklin County in the western part of the state had by far the largest number of deaths, at .35 per 1,000 residents. The next closest was Hampden County at .22 deaths per 1,000 residents.