Shutdown sending Trump poll numbers down

Series cracks emerging in president's base

“IF WE DON’T GET what we want … I am proud to shut down the government for border security, Chuck.”

That, of course, was President Donald Trump in an unexpectedly televised Oval Office confrontation with now House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. No one but Donald Trump knows for certain why he grabbed credit for shutting down the government. But if he thought the issue would be a political winner for him, the polls suggest the opposite. As the shutdown enters its 28th day, voters, including key segments of Trump’s base, see the shutdown as a serious issue, and more blame him over Congressional Democrats for the shutdown.

Meet the Author

Maeve Duggan

Research director, MassINC Polling Group
Meet the Author

Richard Parr

Research Dir., MassINC Polling Group
Meet the Author

Steve Koczela

President, MassINC Polling Group

About Steve Koczela

Steve Koczela is the President of The MassINC Polling Group, where he has grown the organization from its infancy to a nationally known and respected polling provider. During the 2014 election cycle, MPG conducted election polling for WBUR, the continuation of a three-year partnership. Koczela again led the endeavor, producing polls which came within one point of the margin in both the Massachusetts gubernatorial and U.S. Senate Elections. He was also lead writer for Poll Vault, WBUR’s political reporting section during the 2014 Election Cycle.

He has led survey research programs for the U.S. Department of State in Iraq, in key states for President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, and has conducted surveys and polls on behalf of many private corporations. Koczela brings a deep understanding of the foundations of public opinion and a wide ranging methodological expertise. He earned U.S. Department of State recognition for his leading edge work on sample evaluation in post conflict areas using geospatial systems.

Koczela is frequent guest on WBUR as well as many other news and talk programs in Massachusetts and elsewhere. His polling analysis is often cited in local, state, and national media outlets. He currently serves as President of the New England Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (NEAAPOR). Koczela holds a Master’s degree in Marketing Research from the University of Wisconsin and is a veteran of the war in Iraq.

About Steve Koczela

Steve Koczela is the President of The MassINC Polling Group, where he has grown the organization from its infancy to a nationally known and respected polling provider. During the 2014 election cycle, MPG conducted election polling for WBUR, the continuation of a three-year partnership. Koczela again led the endeavor, producing polls which came within one point of the margin in both the Massachusetts gubernatorial and U.S. Senate Elections. He was also lead writer for Poll Vault, WBUR’s political reporting section during the 2014 Election Cycle.

He has led survey research programs for the U.S. Department of State in Iraq, in key states for President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, and has conducted surveys and polls on behalf of many private corporations. Koczela brings a deep understanding of the foundations of public opinion and a wide ranging methodological expertise. He earned U.S. Department of State recognition for his leading edge work on sample evaluation in post conflict areas using geospatial systems.

Koczela is frequent guest on WBUR as well as many other news and talk programs in Massachusetts and elsewhere. His polling analysis is often cited in local, state, and national media outlets. He currently serves as President of the New England Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (NEAAPOR). Koczela holds a Master’s degree in Marketing Research from the University of Wisconsin and is a veteran of the war in Iraq.

The impacts of the shutdown are showing up in Trump’s approval rating, which has endured months and months of endless investigations and blaring headlines with barely a blip. Since the shutdown began, Trump’s approval has been on a steady downward trend, with the FiveThirtyEight average dipping below 40 percent for the first time in almost a year.

It’s not just his political opponents who are souring on the President’s approach. Multiple polls over the past few weeks have shown serious cracks in groups who have traditionally made up President Trump’s political base. An NPR poll released yesterday showed Trump’s net approval among Republicans has slipped 10 points, echoing declines among other key groups (see graphic).