BOSTON MAYOR MARTY WALSH and representatives of Boston 2024 have made claims about levels of public support for the idea of a Boston Olympics that are not supported by the numbers. Here are a few:
- Boston 2024 President Dan O’Connell said on WGBH’s Greater Boston, “I’ve sensed […] overwhelming support for pursuing this effort.” O’Connell repeated the claim at the first public presentation of the bid. “We see a strong majority of support for these Games, and we think it will grow as the community process moves forward.”
- A presentation made to high-dollar donors and reported by the Boston Globe claims, “Boston 2024 has strong, and rapidly growing, public support. Polls show more than the majority of the public want the Games to come –including three out of four Bostonians of color.”
- “I’d be willing to bet if you took a poll today, the majority of Bostonians are excited about this bid,” Mayor Walsh said at a press conference after Boston had been announced as the US Olympic Committee’s choice, in response to a question about holding a public referendum on the matter.
- “I’ve seen polling numbers where a majority of Bostonians are in favor of the Olympics, they’re excited about the possibility of the Olympics,” Mayor Walsh told WGBH’s Scrum podcast in December.
None of the public polls, including one done by the MassINC Polling Group for WBUR, have found support levels that fit these descriptions. The four public polls conducted over the last 8 months have found support ranging from 47 percent to 55 percent statewide, and between 50 and 54 percent in the city of Boston. None of these can be reasonably characterized as overwhelming support. Even Boston2024’s own statewide polling, released as a part of the bid documents made public this week, showed 48 percent support statewide. The support figures from their Boston poll have not been released. The poll we conducted for WBUR also looked specifically at the claim that a majority of Bostonians are excited about the bid, and found the number at 48 percent.
The one instance where polls do show high support levels is at the end of the Boston2024 poll, at which point 66 percent say they support the proposal. If current support were at two-thirds, this would indeed match the descriptions outlined above. But this support level is found after a series of questions describing both positive and negative aspects of the Olympics proposal. This is a standard method in a poll trying to understand potential support for a proposal about which respondents have limited initial understanding, or where a campaign might be run with both positive and negative messages about an idea. The idea is to try to approximate the public discourse about something and see how it moves opinion. In this case, this process moves support, which should be encouraging to proponents. But it is potential support, and cannot be used as an approximation for current support.
Meet the Author
President, MassINC Polling Group
About Steve Koczela
Steve Koczela is the President of The MassINC Polling Group, where he has grown the organization from its infancy to a nationally known and respected polling provider. During the 2014 election cycle, MPG conducted election polling for WBUR, the continuation of a three-year partnership. Koczela again led the endeavor, producing polls which came within one point of the margin in both the Massachusetts gubernatorial and U.S. Senate Elections. He was also lead writer for Poll Vault, WBUR’s political reporting section during the 2014 Election Cycle.
He has led survey research programs for the U.S. Department of State in Iraq, in key states for President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, and has conducted surveys and polls on behalf of many private corporations. Koczela brings a deep understanding of the foundations of public opinion and a wide ranging methodological expertise. He earned U.S. Department of State recognition for his leading edge work on sample evaluation in post conflict areas using geospatial systems.
Koczela is frequent guest on WBUR as well as many other news and talk programs in Massachusetts and elsewhere. His polling analysis is often cited in local, state, and national media outlets. He currently serves as President of the New England Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (NEAAPOR). Koczela holds a Master’s degree in Marketing Research from the University of Wisconsin and is a veteran of the war in Iraq.
About Steve Koczela
Steve Koczela is the President of The MassINC Polling Group, where he has grown the organization from its infancy to a nationally known and respected polling provider. During the 2014 election cycle, MPG conducted election polling for WBUR, the continuation of a three-year partnership. Koczela again led the endeavor, producing polls which came within one point of the margin in both the Massachusetts gubernatorial and U.S. Senate Elections. He was also lead writer for Poll Vault, WBUR’s political reporting section during the 2014 Election Cycle.
He has led survey research programs for the U.S. Department of State in Iraq, in key states for President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, and has conducted surveys and polls on behalf of many private corporations. Koczela brings a deep understanding of the foundations of public opinion and a wide ranging methodological expertise. He earned U.S. Department of State recognition for his leading edge work on sample evaluation in post conflict areas using geospatial systems.
Koczela is frequent guest on WBUR as well as many other news and talk programs in Massachusetts and elsewhere. His polling analysis is often cited in local, state, and national media outlets. He currently serves as President of the New England Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (NEAAPOR). Koczela holds a Master’s degree in Marketing Research from the University of Wisconsin and is a veteran of the war in Iraq.
Meet the Author
Research Director, The MassINC Polling Group
About Rich Parr
Richard Parr is Research Director with The MassINC Polling Group. Rich contributes a deep familiarity with Massachusetts policies, politics and media, as well as a background in public policy and media.
Since joining MPG in 2013, Rich has taken primary responsibility for data processing and contributes to survey and sample design. He uses his background in policy and media to craft and edit analysis memos and reports attuned to the political context and salient issues. Rich oversaw data visualization and mapping for WBUR’s Poll Vault during the 2014 election cycle, and co-authored and edited several piece for the site.
Prior to joining MPG, Rich was Policy Director at A Better City, a nonprofit representing Boston-area businesses and institutions on transportation, land development and the environment. In that role Rich became a recognized expert on transportation finance and helped organize a statewide coalition which succeeded in elevating transportation to a top legislative priority. He launched and edited ABC’s blog and oversaw its social media presence. Rich continues to work on transportation projects in his spare time and for MassINC, MPG’s parent think-tank. He is a member of the Metropolitan Area Planning Council’s Legislative Committee and the Boston Bikes Advisory Group, for which MPG has conducted pro-bono analysis.
Before joining ABC, Rich produced web content for the award-winning PBS documentary series FRONTLINE. He has also worked in new media for political campaigns and in media operations for the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston. Rich holds a Bachelor’s degree in Literature from Harvard College.
About Rich Parr
Richard Parr is Research Director with The MassINC Polling Group. Rich contributes a deep familiarity with Massachusetts policies, politics and media, as well as a background in public policy and media.
Since joining MPG in 2013, Rich has taken primary responsibility for data processing and contributes to survey and sample design. He uses his background in policy and media to craft and edit analysis memos and reports attuned to the political context and salient issues. Rich oversaw data visualization and mapping for WBUR’s Poll Vault during the 2014 election cycle, and co-authored and edited several piece for the site.
Prior to joining MPG, Rich was Policy Director at A Better City, a nonprofit representing Boston-area businesses and institutions on transportation, land development and the environment. In that role Rich became a recognized expert on transportation finance and helped organize a statewide coalition which succeeded in elevating transportation to a top legislative priority. He launched and edited ABC’s blog and oversaw its social media presence. Rich continues to work on transportation projects in his spare time and for MassINC, MPG’s parent think-tank. He is a member of the Metropolitan Area Planning Council’s Legislative Committee and the Boston Bikes Advisory Group, for which MPG has conducted pro-bono analysis.
Before joining ABC, Rich produced web content for the award-winning PBS documentary series FRONTLINE. He has also worked in new media for political campaigns and in media operations for the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston. Rich holds a Bachelor’s degree in Literature from Harvard College.
It is also not comparable to the strong support shown in cities as they were competing for past Olympics, where support often
hit levels of 70 to 90 percent. Boston’s comparable number to these high levels of support is somewhere between 48 and 55 percent. Boston may reach a similarly high level of support to these other cities at some point, but to claim that support is already a strong majority in clearly misleading.
And if we are to rely on current support levels from any poll on this issue, public or private, we are around half who are in favor of the proposal. It may be slightly less, may be slightly more. But support is not strong, a strong majority, or rapidly growing, and the majority of Bostonians are not excited by the idea as of now.
Steve Koczela is president and Rich Parr is the research director of the MassINC Polling Group, a subsidiary of MassINC, which publishes CommonWealth.
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The one instance where polls do show high support levels is at the end of the Boston2024 poll, at which point 66 percent say they support the proposal. If current support were at two-thirds, this would indeed match the descriptions outlined above. But this support level is found after a series of questions describing both positive and negative aspects of the Olympics proposal. This is a standard method in a poll trying to understand potential support for a proposal about which respondents have limited initial understanding, or where a campaign might be run with both positive and negative messages about an idea. The idea is to try to approximate the public discourse about something and see how it moves opinion. In this case, this process moves support, which should be encouraging to proponents. But it is potential support, and cannot be used as an approximation for current support.