Blue-collar cities made the difference between Scott Brown upsetting Martha Coakley in 2010, and Elizabeth Warren toppling Brown two years later. If that pattern holds true, Sen.-elect Ed Markey could be sweating out his reelection effort next year.
A post on Blue Mass Group yesterday compared Markey’s strongholds to Warren’s, and found that Warren performed far better with blue-collar voters, while Markey’s strength was with the suburban chablis and brie crowd. Markey outperformed Warren in wealthy close-in suburbs like Lexington, Concord, Wellesley and Brookline. However, he fell far off the pace Warren set in cities like Springfield, Holyoke, Lawrence, and Fitchburg.
The Markey-Warren comparison puts a new spin on the relative softness of Markey’s 10-point victory over Gabriel Gomez. Last week, CommonWealth mapped the sharp dropoff in Democratic votes from the 2010 Brown-Coakley matchup. The Markey-Gomez contest drew nearly 1.1 million fewer voters than the 2010 Senate special election did. So even though Markey’s vote margins were far healthier than Coakley’s — he won by 10 points, while she lost by 5 — Markey only collected 60 percent of the votes Coakley did. That sharp dropoff in Democratic voting wasn’t uniform.
Statewide turnout in the Markey-Gomez Senate special election dropped by roughly half from 2010, but Markey’s wider margins in tony suburbs like Lincoln and Concord meant that the drop in Democratic votes was less severe in those towns. By contrast, Markey struggled mightily to turn out votes in cities like Pittsfield, and along the South Coast.
The lesson from Brown’s victory over Coakley was that Democrats can’t just count on turnout in Boston, Cambridge, and the wealthy western suburbs to carry them to victory. Warren poured huge amounts of energy into driving up turnout in blue-collar municipalities, particularly in cities like Worcester, Brockton, Lowell, Fall River and New Bedford, where Brown had eroded or even reversed Democrats’ traditional advantage. Markey fell far off Warren’s pace in these cities, and his vote totals compared to Coakley’s suffered disproportionately. These weaknesses didn’t matter this time around, against a surprisingly weak first-time candidate like Gomez. He’ll surely have to do better when the GOP gets a redo in just 17 months.
–PAUL MCMORROW
BEACON HILL
State lawmakers approve a $34 billion budget for the current fiscal year that relies on $500 million in new taxes to help finance an increase in local aid and enough funding for the University of Massachusetts to avoid a tuition increase, the Associated Press reports (via WBUR).
In a case brought by the Boston Globe against the Patrick administration, a judge rules that state officials must release the names of people who have received big payouts from the state to settle employment disputes, lawsuits, and other issues.
Columnist Peter Lucas calls on President Obama to let the ailing former House speaker, Sal DiMasi, come home from prison.
The Pioneer Institute’s Josh Archambault goes after the state’s Obamacare waiver request in a Herald op-ed column.
MUNICIPAL MATTERS
After a heated meeting packed by wind turbine supporters and opponents, the Fairhaven Board of Selectmen set September 9 as the date for a new election for the disputed Board of Health seat, but a new group of residents wants town officials to put all offices up for reelection because of the botched vote.
The Boston Redevelopment Authority just can’t shake the controversy swirling around a development project being built by a friend of Mayor Tom Menino’s top aide; now state Rep. Nick Collins is calling on the agency to rescind its approval of the project.
When aging highways come down, vibrant new neighborhoods can spring up, writes Paul McMorrow.
CASINOS
The Aquinnah Wampanoag are appealing a decision barring them from intervening in a suit by a casino developer challenging the tribal set-aside in the gaming statute.
The Mohegan Sun, trying to build support in Palmer for its casino proposal, says it wants a full flyover of the Massachusetts Turnpike to avoid traffic congestion, the Telegram & Gazette reports. Its representatives claim that the $1 billion facility should meet the gaming commission’s “wow” factor.
Salisbury selectmen vote 3-2 to reject a Maryland developer’s bid to open a slots parlor in town, the Eagle-Tribune reports.
NATIONAL POLITICS/WASHINGTON
US Rep. John Tierney blames Republicans for the rise in interest rates on Stafford Loans, but says he’s optimistic a compromise can be worked out, the Lowell Sun reports. Sen. Elizabeth Warren tells WBUR she’s frustrated — she used the word “dang” — that her proposal to lower the interest rate didn’t gain traction. CommonWealth reports that a continuing stalemate in Washington on student loans could hurt college students, some of whom are facing immense financial pressure now. Some local colleges have opened food pantries to help. The Wall Street Journal editorial page laughs at the “hilarious spectacle” of Warren fighting the White House, and fellow Democrats who have come to believe that “rates have to be tied to something resembling economic reality.”
The Department of Defense has blocked millions of military computers from accessing any sites that carry stories or information about the NSA leaks and accused traitor Edward Snowden.
The ironclad sequestration process turns out to be anything but ironclad, the Washington Post reports (via Lowell Sun).
The Boy Scouts of America is bracing for a backlash from the right over the group’s decision to allow gay teens as members as well as from the left because of the continued ban against gay adults as volunteers or leaders.
The Urban Institute maps the change in poverty demographics over the past 30 years.
ELECTIONS
Democrats running to replace Ed Markey in Congress say they support the People’s Pledge, but state Sen. William Brownsberger wants to go further, WBUR reports. Sheriff Peter Koutoujian’s campaign announcement video is here.
The Huffington Post previews Collision 2012, the account of Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign by Washington Post reporter Dan Balz.
Anthony Weiner knows how to bend New York’s tabloids to his will, blue puns notwithstanding.
BUSINESS/ECONOMY
A Catholic church in Worcester criticizes the Worcester Art Museum for using its Facebook page to congratulate the local gay community after the Defense of Marriage Act was shot down by the Supreme Court, the Telegram & Gazette reports.
Plans are hatched to turn the Arsenal Mall and two adjacent parcels into a mixed-use “mecca for start-ups and young professionals.”
The owner of Shaw’s and Star supermarkets is ending its “reward card” program, a loyalty promotion that gave members discounts on certain products but in return tracked purchases and targeted marketing toward those consumers based on their spending habits.
EDUCATION
The Salem News, in an editorial, raises alarms about a proposal by Peabody officials to explore selling naming rights for the city’s schools.
The National Security Agency has launched a variety of math and science programs in US public schools.
The Harvard portfolio manager’s big bet on foreign markets has backfired.
HEALTH CARE
Health care basically is the American economy now.
Massachusetts researchers have identified a new tick-borne illness, reinforcing the message that patients and doctors should worry about more than Lyme disease when investigating possible tick-related disease.
TRANSPORTATION
The MetroWest Daily News asks what a tech tax has to do with transportation. Meanwhile, eight states have already raised their gas taxes, and Massachusetts seems poised to follow suit, Governing reports.
San Francisco transit employees strike.
ENERGY/ENVIRONMENT
A tiny exotic bug known as the red pine scale that is responsible for killing more than 500 acres of trees in Massachusetts last year appears to have spread into Hingham. Environmental officials, who have spotted them in at least three other tree stands in the state, say the insects can kill trees in as little as two to three years.
Four US senators propose legislation to begin addressing storage of the nation’s nuclear waste, Governing reports.
Public Service of New Hampshire cuts its electricity rates by 5 percent, reflecting a drop in energy prices and a loss in customers to competitors, the Eagle-Tribune reports. Meanwhile, on Cape Cod, the Cape Light Compact’s pricing has not remained competitive and many customers have abandoned the local company for NStar.
MEDIA
A judge will rule on Monday in a motion by the Patriot Ledger and Taunton Gazette, which was joined by the Boston Globe, to unseal the search warrants in the murder investigation of former Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez.
The Berkshires wants WCVB Channel 5 back.
Is the Globe’s Dorchester building worth more than the paper itself?