IT’S OFTEN HARD for outsiders to make sense of Massachusetts, where Democrats reign supreme but Republicans have dominated the governor’s office for more than three decades. Today’s development does little to help clear things up.
The thumbnail version: A former Republican president who is deeply unpopular in the state has endorsed a former Republican state rep running for governor who has virtually no chance of being elected – and yet it could be a sign of the trouble ahead for the Republican incumbent, who continues to be one of the most popular governors in the country.
Donald Trump, banned from Twitter, long his preferred platform for zinging enemies and offering “complete and total” endorsements, was left to put out a statement extolling the virtues of Geoff Diehl, the former Whitman rep running for governor.
As is often the case with the ex-president, for whom grievances and payback are often what fuels his fire, this was as much an opportunity to unload a double-barreled assault on Charlie Baker, the Republican governor with temerity to wave off allegiance to Trump. Calling Baker a “RINO” (Republican in name only) who “has done nothing for the Republican Party,” Trump charged the two-term governor with driving up energy costs and crime rates, botching the vaccine rollout, doing nothing for veterans, and disrespecting police. For good measure, he likened his “green climate” views to those of lefty firebrand AOC.
While it’s easy to laugh off the hyperbolic harangue, Baker and his minions may know better than to entirely dismiss its impact. The Herald’s Howie Carr, a huge Trump cheerleader, has a pretty clear-eyed dissection of the news. “Baker’s coat holders will say today that Geoff Diehl hasn’t got a prayer in the general election,” writes Carr, who doesn’t seem to disagree. The real issue, he says, will be in the Republican primary, where “Baker would first have to win back the deplorables, whom he has both betrayed and disrespected over the last 18 months.”
Baker, who has yet to say whether he’ll run for a third term next year, faces an ugly intraparty showdown, where much of the Republicans’ minuscule remaining base in the state (only 9 percent of registered voters) remains enthralled with Trump – and disillusioned with his moderate ways. That schism extends to the party’s top ranks, where Trump loyalist Jim Lyons serves as state chairman – and ongoing thorn in Baker’s side.
Four years ago, Springfield pastor Scott Lively, who makes Diehl look like a wishy-washy centrist, grabbed 36 percent of the Republican primary vote against Baker. Diehl is figuring he can do better.
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Executive Editor, CommonWealth
About Michael Jonas
Michael Jonas has worked in journalism in Massachusetts since the early 1980s. Before joining the CommonWealth staff in early 2001, he was a contributing writer for the magazine for two years. His cover story in CommonWealth's Fall 1999 issue on Boston youth outreach workers was selected for a PASS (Prevention for a Safer Society) Award from the National Council on Crime and Delinquency.
Michael got his start in journalism at the Dorchester Community News, a community newspaper serving Boston's largest neighborhood, where he covered a range of urban issues. Since the late 1980s, he has been a regular contributor to the Boston Globe. For 15 years he wrote a weekly column on local politics for the Boston Sunday Globe's City Weekly section.
Michael has also worked in broadcast journalism. In 1989, he was a co-producer for "The AIDS Quarterly," a national PBS series produced by WGBH-TV in Boston, and in the early 1990s, he worked as a producer for "Our Times," a weekly magazine program on WHDH-TV (Ch. 7) in Boston.
Michael lives in Dorchester with his wife and their two daughters.
About Michael Jonas
Michael Jonas has worked in journalism in Massachusetts since the early 1980s. Before joining the CommonWealth staff in early 2001, he was a contributing writer for the magazine for two years. His cover story in CommonWealth's Fall 1999 issue on Boston youth outreach workers was selected for a PASS (Prevention for a Safer Society) Award from the National Council on Crime and Delinquency.
Michael got his start in journalism at the Dorchester Community News, a community newspaper serving Boston's largest neighborhood, where he covered a range of urban issues. Since the late 1980s, he has been a regular contributor to the Boston Globe. For 15 years he wrote a weekly column on local politics for the Boston Sunday Globe's City Weekly section.
Michael has also worked in broadcast journalism. In 1989, he was a co-producer for "The AIDS Quarterly," a national PBS series produced by WGBH-TV in Boston, and in the early 1990s, he worked as a producer for "Our Times," a weekly magazine program on WHDH-TV (Ch. 7) in Boston.
Michael lives in Dorchester with his wife and their two daughters.
The state’s semi-open primary rules allow voters not registered under any party label to vote in primaries, and Baker’s strength comes from support from those “unenrolled” voters who take a Republican ballot. Next year, some of them will also feel the pull of a competitive Democratic primary, which already has three contenders.
MassINC Polling Group president Steve Koczela tweeted last night that Trump’s “favorables” in Massachusetts in the last polling done before the 2020 election stood at 31 percent. That underscores his limited appeal here – and the limited impact of his endorsement in a general election matchup. “Even so, his numbers among Republicans were often higher than Baker’s own. So in a Republican primary, this dynamic is something to pay close attention to,” Koczela said.
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