A quick glance at the returns from Thursday’s Iowa caucuses (see county-by-county results here) shows that Democrat Barack Obama came somewhat close to replicating John Kerry’s patterns of strength (see county-by-county 2004 results on Dave Leip’s Atlas of US Presidential Elections), especially in the eastern counties along the Mississippi River. Will that bode well for his chances in New Hampshire (which Kerry won in 2004)? Meanwhile, Republican Mike Huckabee generally did well in areas that were most resistant to George W. Bush in the 2000 Iowa caucuses (again, look for results on Dave Leip’s Atlas of US Presidential Elections). Second-place finisher Mitt Romney did better in Bush’s strongest counties, which may be a good omen in the long run (Bush did get the nomination in 2000) but isn’t necessarily a good thing in New Hampshire (where Bush lost to John McCain in 2000).
Some specifics:
Obama won four of the five largest counties carried by John Kerry in 2004 (Linn, Scott, Black Hawk, Johnson) and tied Clinton in the fifth (Woodbury). But John Edwards wasn’t entirely successful in holding onto the five largest counties he carried in 2004. This time, he won two (Warren and Jasper), Clinton took one (Lee), and Obama took the other two (Polk and Dallas).
In 2000, George W. Bush won 41 percent of the popular vote against several more conservative candidates and carried all but a handful of the counties. The three biggest counties where Bush won at least 45 percent were Pottawattamie, Winnesheik, and Bremer. This year, Mitt Romney carried the first two, and Mike Huckabee took Bremer. But in the three biggest counties where Bush won less than 33 percent in 2000 (Sioux, Washington, and Hardin), Huckabee won handily in 2008.