Next week’s Republican primary in Florida could be a key turning point in the campaign, as it’s the last chance for candidates to gain momentum before the primaries on Feb. 5, or “Super Tuesday” (or “Tsunami Tuesday,” or “Big Bang Tuesday,” or whatever). There hasn’t been a seriously contested GOP primary in Florida since 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated the first George Bush here, so there’s not a lot of geographical data to offer clues about what will happen on the 29th. But the map below shows where John McCain had pockets of strength against the second George Bush in 2000. Keep in mind that McCain had actually ended his campaign before Florida got to vote, so the 20 percent he got here seems fairly hard-core. Because of the more crowded field this time around, he may be able to win with just 10 more points statewide, or with unusually high turnout in his strongholds, notably Palm Beach County.
I’ve highlighted the six counties that cast more than 40,000 votes in the 2000 primary, and while McCain had pretty high support in “snowbird” counties of Broward and Palm Beach, he got very little love from the biggest county in the state, Miami-Dade. That county is famous for its high numbers of Cuban-American Republicans, and that demographic group went overwhelmingly for George W. Bush, continuing its pattern of leaning toward the more conservative candidate in Republican primaries. Can McCain do better there this year? My guess is that he doesn’t have to win it, given his probable strength elsewhere on Florida’s Gold Coast, but I can’t see him taking the state if he can’t get at least 15 percent there.
Not surprisingly, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani is making a strong play for Miami-Dade, and he has a speech scheduled in Miami for Friday. (He’ll also be in Palm Beach County’s Boca Raton and in Sarasota County over the next couple of days.) McCain has a town hall meeting in Orlando on Thursday; if he can extend his base northward to Disney Country, he’ll certainly be in a better position to weather a big loss in Miami. As for Mitt Romney, his schedule was not yet up at the New York Times website today, but he seems to be running a statewide campaign — though the Gulf Coast seems especially ripe for the picking. (Northern Florida seems hospitable to Mike Huckabee, but it just doesn’t cast enough votes to give him a victory statewide.)
