Solace for Iowa’s losers?
By 
While we wait for the Iowa results (and the maps they’ll bring!), here is a simple chart showing that a win in Iowa doesn’t necessarily act as a "slingshot" guaranteeing a win in the New Hampshire primary. In fact, there usually seems to be a backlash against the winner of the Iowa caucuses when Granite State voters go to the polls, perhaps because New Hampshire wants to maintain its relevance by being contrarian or perhaps because the dynamics of an open primary are so different from those of a caucus system. At any rate, since Iowa became the lead-off contest in the nominating process, none of its winners have done significantly better in New Hampshire:
|
Year (party)  |
Iowa winner |
% |
New Hampshire % |
Difference |
|
1976 (D) |
Carter |
28 |
28 |
0 |
|
1976 (R) |
Ford |
52 |
49 |
-3 |
|
1980 (D) |
Carter |
59 |
47 |
-12 |
|
1980 (R) |
Bush |
32 |
23* |
-9 |
|
1984 (D) |
Mondale |
45 |
28* |
-17 |
|
1988 (D) |
Gephardt |
31 |
20* |
-11 |
|
1988 (R) |
Dole |
37 |
28* |
-9 |
|
1996 (R) |
Dole |
26 |
26* |
0 |
|
2000 (D) |
Gore |
63 |
50 |
-13 |
|
2000 (R) |
Bush |
41 |
30* |
-11 |
|
2004 (D) |
Kerry |
37 |
38 |
1 |
|
|
|
Meet the Author
|
*Lost primary |
|
