Super Tuesday poll round-up, Feb. 1

Lots of new polls posted at RealClearPolitics today, but I’m not sure how much stock to put in them, given that none take into account last night’s Democratic debate and many still have John Edwards at a level he surely won’t reach on Tuesday. The Republican race also seems too fluid for me to trust the polls.

I don’t necessarily trust their total figures any more than other polls, but I like Survey USA because it provides breakdowns by geographic region. Here’s a round-up of the most striking results, in case you see early returns trickling in on Tuesday night and wonder whose base is reporting first.

Alabama: Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are strongest in the southern half of the state, with Democrat Hillary Clinton polling well in the north.

California: McCain’s base is in the San Francisco Bay area (as it was in 2000); Clinton is strongest in the Inland Empire (Riverside and San Bernardino counties).

Connecticut: McCain and Obama are ahead in the New Haven area (will it really vote the same way as Montgomery, Alabama?), while Clinton and Republican Mitt Romney do best outside of the state’s major metro areas.

Massachusetts: Obama has the most support in the southeast and Cape Cod (plausible, since Ted Kennedy is extremely popular in Fall River and New Bedford, while the Cape leans toward reformist candidates).

Missouri: McCain is tops in the St. Louis area, while Romney runs best in the central part of the state. Also, Clinton is strongest in the Ozarks (near Arkansas), and Obama has a base in the Kansas City area.

New Jersey: Clinton does best in the southern part of the state (ironically, the farthest you can get from the state she represents in Congress).

New York: Both McCain and Clinton poll best in New York City’s suburbs, while the race is tighter in the city itself and in upstate New York.