The 2004 Bush swing and the 2008 Democratic primaries

Welcome, Michael Barone readers. (My copy of his Almanac of American Politics is always near my computer.) To elaborate on the point that Barack Obama seems to be doing best in areas that already started to trend away from the Republican Party in 2004 — and that Hillary Clinton is doing best where there was a shift toward George W. Bush in 2004, including many suburban counties that historically have tilted toward incumbent parties seeking a second term — I’ve made a table (see PDF) below of the largest counties that fit this pattern. More analysis to come after I get a chance to update primary numbers. (In some states, smaller counties in particular have reported changes several weeks after the primaries were actually held.)

Download DemprimbyBushchange.pdf