MASSACHUSETTS, A PLACE long associated with spirited political contests, is sleepwalking its way through the state’s first open race for governor in eight years.
“It’s August and we pretty much know who’s going to be governor. I feel bad even saying it,” said Evan Horowitz of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University. But Horowitz, the guest host on The Codcast, not only said it, he devoted this week’s episode to chewing over that idea with Erin O’Brien, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts Boston.
They landed in different spots, with Horowitz lamenting the impact of the non-race, while O’Brien saw it as an anomalous moment in state politics, but not one to get too exercised about.
The Democratic primary contest for governor effectively ended in June, when state Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz dropped out, leaving Attorney General Maura Healey alone in the field. On the Republican side, front-runner Geoff Diehl, a former state rep, has largely brushed off debates with his GOP rival, businessman Chris Doughty. Looking ahead to November, either Republican candidate looks poised to be steamrolled by as many as 30 points by Healey, according to recent polling.
That has people speculating – while summer beach days are still with us – about a Healey administration that seems primed to take power in January.
“Campaigns matter,” said Horowitz. “They matter for candidates. They matter for constituents. They matter for voters. They matter for the future of the Commonwealth.” They have a “trial by fire” element that is healthy, he said, as they “expose things about candidates. And without a campaign you don’t expose things about candidates.”
“It does matter,” O’Brien said about campaigns. “And I think you’re right: to kick the tires is important, to ask tough questions.” But she suggested that has, in many ways already been done, and that the early months of the Democratic primary and the polling looking ahead to November suggest Healey is something of a consensus choice. “Maura Healey is well-known to residents of Massachusetts. Those tires have been kicked,” she said.
“You’re suggesting the lack of a campaign, or the lack of a contest, is actually just a testament to her strength as a candidate?” asked Horowitz. “Like, it shows actually we don’t have that many questions. If we really had questions, there would be a competitive race.”
“Exactly. Somebody would get in there and win,” said O’Brien. “Are you buying it? You can’t see his eyes, people,” O’Brien said, suggesting that Horowitz wasn’t convinced.
O’Brien said the lesson isn’t that “we don’t need competitive elections.” Instead, she said, this year’s race is simply “anomalistic,” with Healey a known quantity who’s been vetted by voters, while Republicans are poised to nominate a candidate who “is not electable.” She called it a unique case that we shouldn’t “overgeneralize from.”
Horowitz kept pushing back, wondering where the serious conversation about Healey’s approach to governing and policy positions will come from. “If there were a debate, if there were a campaign, then there would be people saying, well – I’m making this up – your health care policy is garbage. It’s lacking this. Your environmental policy is misguided,” he said. “We’re missing that.” What he fears, said Horowitz, is that “we get to January and then people start asking, what is the first bill you’re going to file? What is the actual top priority? And at that point, Healey and her team say, oh, we’ll figure it out right now.”