The Snowmeister factor

Correspondent Chris V. asks:

If you have not done an article yet on how the moving of the primaries to Super Tuesday in February could lead to weather deciding who the nominees are, now might be the time.  Even if the primaries go on despite a snowstorm, doesn’t that change who votes?  A smaller percentage of the elderly and poor, more suburbanites with SUV’s? 

Here are the high and low temperatures for February 5, 2007. Note that it never went above 2 degrees in Obama’s home base of Chicago, and it stayed below freezing practically everywhere in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York (Clinton and Giuliani’s home state). Among the big states that will vote next February 5, California had the mildest weather. In 2004, Super Tuesday was on first Tuesday in March; you can see the a noticable difference on March 5, 2007, when it thawed to the 40s in most of the Northeast Corridor and hit 31 in Chicago.

Among Democrats, Clinton has been strongest among older voters who may not get out in bad weather; then again, it’s still up in the air whether Obama’s younger supporters will turn out in any weather. In the Republican race, the question is whether a low turnout will help the candidate with the most committed voters — and they may be the strong conservatives who prefer Huckabee or Romney over Giuliani.

As is often the case, it all may come down to money. The best-financed candidates may be better to get people to the polls in inclement weather, and to remind people that they’re supposed to pick presidential nominees before Valentine’s Day.