Ed Glaeser considers the post-pandemic challenges facing cities
HARVARD ECONOMICS PROFESSOR Ed Glaeser is one of the leading authorities on the role of cities in modern life — and throughout human history. His 2011 book The Triumph of the City lays out the central place of cities in driving innovation and economic vitality. He dubs them “our greatest invention,” and his book’s subtitle says they make us “richer, smarter, greener, and happier.”
But does the coronavirus pandemic, with millions working remotely and a sudden surge of migration to the suburbs and rural areas, spell the end of all that?
Glaeser, the guest on this week’s episode of The Codcast, thinks cities — and face-to-face work settings — will retain a central place in society, but he says they do face enormous new challenges in the wake of the pandemic’s harsh reminder that we remain vulnerable to the ravages of infectious disease, despite a hundred-year run in which easily transmissible illnesses have steadily receded as a major cause of death in the developed world.
“I don’t think that in any sense the core arguments of that book have been upended,” he says of Triumph of the City’s thesis about the great catalyzing role of cities, which the book says have been “engines of innovation since Plato and Socrates bickered in an Athenian marketplace.”
Glaeser says one crucial variable will be whether government makes the kind of investment in public health infrastructure — which he says it should have been doing all along — to protect against future pandemics.
Glaeser says two big questions loom when it comes to the future of cities in the post-pandemic era: The first is whether “face-to-face urban life” is under existential threat, the second is whether cities like Boston, which have been huge winners in the knowledge economy of the last several decades, are particularly vulnerable.
He thinks the answer to the former question is no, and lays out a variety of pieces of evidence of the strong affinity we have for direct human contact and of the greater long-run productivity from in-person collaboration in the workplace. “I think the office will be back,” said Glaeser. “I think face-to-face work will be back. It’ll be back with a vengeance, and even more so the desire, particularly of younger people, to be out in cities, connecting with younger people, both at work and at play.”
While more educated workers were able to pivot readily in the short-term to remote work, Glaeser says there is lots of evidence that long-term productivity suffers from isolated work-from-home arrangements. Even in the very wired world of programming, he said, while those workers “were allegedly just as productive” during the pandemic, “the new hires for programmers [in 2020] were down by 40 percent in November relative to February. People weren’t onboarding new workers, which is really compatible with the view that you can coast on old relationships, but you can’t start something new. And I will say, this is exactly my experience. When it comes to working with long-term PhD students that I advise, it’s great over Zoom. It’s just fine. When it comes to getting some [undergraduate] 19-year-olds that I’ve never seen before excited about mathematical economics over Zoom, I’ve got no idea how to do that. And I don’t think I’m ever going to be able to.”
As for the future of high-cost cities like Boston, however, Glaeser said the pandemic has underscored the ability of startups to relocate anywhere that their talent-rich workforce would be interested in living. “So I think Boston has to really think that it’s going to have to fight hard to retain the pools of talent that it’s kept,” he said. “Particularly if our elected leaders decide that they’re going to engage in aggressive, progressive redistributive politics — [for] businesses and the rich it has never been easier for them to relocate, whether it’s to Miami or Austin, Texas. And so we really are under a kind of threat we haven’t faced since the 1970s, where relocation is a genuine possibility.”
That said, Glaeser pointed to Google’s recent purchase of a million and a half square feet of office space in downtown Manhattan and the vibrant market in Boston and Cambridge for life sciences lab space as signs of the enduring draw of the cities that have led the urban renaissance of recent years.
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FROM AROUND THE WEB
A first stab at trying to get motorized dirt bikes to stay out of Franklin Park appeared to have little effect on Sunday, with bikers zipping past electronic billboards set up by the city warning that they are not allowed in the park. (Boston Herald)
State health officials say they are ready to start vaccinating teenagers age 12 to 15 if the federal government allows it. (Gloucester Daily Times)
Pfizer seeks full FDA approval of its COVID-19 vaccine. Currently, the vaccine is approved under an emergency use authorization. (NPR)
Baseless charges of election fraud pushed by Donald Trump and supporters after the 2020 election have their roots in a 2018 effort cooked up by a conservative Texas businessman who began pushing the idea there had been manipulation of voting data in that year’s election. (Washington Post)
House minority leader Kevin McCarthy officially declared support for the effort by Rep. Elise Stefanik to oust Rep. Liz Cheney from her Republican House leadership post. Cheney has fallen out of favor for insisting that the party must repudiate former president Donald Trump’s lies about the 2020 election being stolen from him through massive voter fraud. (New York Times) Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Illinois compares the Republican Party to the Titanic. (The Hill)
The crime problems centered on drug use and addiction issues around the intersection of Mass. Avenue and Melnea Cass Boulevard in Boston have only gotten worse in recent weeks, and are becoming a major issue in the unfolding mayor’s race. (Boston Herald)
US Sen. Elizabeth Warren tells Politico that she will run for reelection to the Senate in 2024.
A new report says the bulk of the spending in the first months of an experimental guaranteed basic income program in Chelsea is taking place at food stores and restaurants. (Boston Globe)
The proposal by Tree House Brewing of Charlton to open another facility in South Deerfield appears to be picking up steam. (Daily Hampshire Gazette)
Massachusetts enters a new stage of reopening Monday, with amusement and theme parks allowed to reopen and the loosening of restrictions on organized sports and indoor singing. (MassLive)
The changes in admission criteria at Boston’s three 7-12 grade exam schools have, as projected, led to increased acceptance of Black and Latino students and a decrease in admission offers to white and Asian applicants. (Boston Globe)
The Salem and Peabody schools learn from Holyoke as they figure out how to address chronic absenteeism. (Salem News)
The long-discussed idea of creating a direct link between the MBTA’s Red and Blue lines is getting renewed attention as Mass. General Hospital, which abuts where the connection would be made, rolls out plans for a nearly $2 billion expansion. (Boston Globe)
Former state transportation secretaries Fred Salvucci and Jim Aloisi say the proposed big federal COVID-19 relief legislation provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fashion an equitable transportation spending plan for the country. (Boston Globe)
Gov. Charlie Baker’s plan to allow municipalities to install red light cameras is a controversial one. (Salem News)
The mother of a 16-year-old Hopkinton girl whose death has sparked criticism of the Middlesex district attorney and calls for an independent investigation of the case has a pending assault charge involving allegations that she beat a teenage daughter (the child’s identity is redacted in the police report of the incident). (Boston Herald) The mother’s Go Fund Me campaign for an independent investigation of her daughter’s death has raised more than $50,000. (MetroWest Daily News)
Closing arguments will be heard today in the federal corruption trial of former Fall River mayor Jasiel Correia. (Herald News)
A man is fatally shot by the police after ramming his SUV into the Leicester police station and apparently pointing a rifle at officers. (Telegram & Gazette)PASSINGS
Longtime AP religion writer Rachel Zoll, of Amherst, dies at 55. (Associated Press)