The MBTA’s first quarter financial report for the fiscal year wasn’t very good, so the transit authority tossed in some potentially promising news from the next quarter.

The T has been struggling to convince riders to return to its subways, buses, and commuter rail lines, and results from the first quarter (July, August, and September) suggested they are continuing to stay away.

Fare revenue averaged $30 million a month during the quarter, roughly half of what it was prior to COVID. The shutdown of the Orange Line from August 19 to September 19 for major safety repairs didn’t help.

But preliminary October numbers showed some improvement, with fare revenue rising to $33 million, or 54 percent of pre-COVID levels. That would be the highest percentage since at least July 2021.

Ridership and fare revenue are important to the MBTA’s financial health, but they also have broader ramifications for the state’s efforts to fight climate change and bolster the economy. That’s why fare revenue and ridership are being watched so closely at the T.

The T has developed three post-COVID ridership scenarios, featuring a low, middle, and high estimate. None of them envision passenger levels returning to pre-COVID levels over the next five years, but there is a significant variance between the three projections.

The fiscal 2023 budget is based on the middle ridership projection, but lately the numbers have edged closer to the low estimate, coming in $28 million less than expected during the first quarter.

First quarter financial results, released at a subcommittee meeting of the MBTA board on Thursday, indicated fare revenues totaled $89 million, while expenses were $560 million. Expenses were $71 million lower than forecast, in part because the T is having difficulty filling many vacant job positions.

The deficit between fare revenues and expenses was offset during the quarter by a strong increase in the state sales tax revenue the T receives and one-time federal and state revenues.

T officials are worried about what will happen once the one-time federal and state revenues run out. They anticipate that expenses will keep rising. “We expect the pace of spending to continue to grow over the months and years ahead,” said Mary Ann O’Hara, the T’s chief financial officer.

Capital spending at the MBTA, which is intended to improve the condition of the system, is also headed in the wrong direction. The capital spending goal in fiscal 2022 was $2 billion, but the final spending tally was $1.6 billion. The spending goal for 2023 is again $2 billion, but the T was off the pace needed to reach that goal by 18 percent in the first quarter. Officials say if current trend lines continue, capital spending will reach $1.74 billion this fiscal year.

The T’s financial numbers aren’t rosy, but the bigger concern is the lack of riders. Are they staying away because of safety concerns, or are they staying home because COVID has changed the way businesses operate? Or some combination of both. These questions will loom large next year as a new governor and legislative leaders on Beacon Hill debate what to do about the T.

BRUCE MOHL

NEW STORIES FROM COMMONWEALTH MAGAZINE

Who will lead state GOP? The struggling Massachusetts Republican Party is attracting a growing field of candidates eager to lead it, including Jay Fleitman, the state committee vice chair; Christopher Lyon, a GOP campaign operative; and Amy Carnevale, a committee member from Marblehead. The incumbent is Jim Lyons, a Trump loyalist who has not said yet whether he will seek reelection in January.

– The state Republican Party took a major drubbing in the November election, as Democrats took control of all statewide offices, maintained their hold on the state’s entire congressional delegation, and gained ground in the Legislature. Read more.

Looking to rebound: The state pension board has taken a hit the last three quarters, but officials say there are signs the markets might be rebounding. Read more.

OPINION

Keep them here: Charles Chieppo and Aidan Enright of the Pioneer Institute say retaining international students who come here should be a top priority for the state. Read more.

STORIES FROM ELSEWHERE AROUND THE WEB                    

BEACON HILL

The state has returned $2.5 billion to 2.9 million taxpayers so far under the 62F law. (MassLive)

HEALTH/HEALTH CARE

In the second year of COVID, there were fewer deaths but more life years lost. (WBUR)

The North Shore Birth Center at Beverly Hospital officially closed its doors on Thursday. (Daily Item) CommonWealthrecently examined the dwindling alternatives for giving birth.

ELECTIONS

In a move that would upset decades of convention in which the country is quadrennially inundated with shots of politicians in White Mountain diners and stories referencing “flinty New Englanders” and the “Live Free or Die” ethos, President Biden wants the Democratic presidential nominating process to move its first primary from New Hampshire to the more diverse precincts of South Carolina. (New York Times)

BUSINESS/ECONOMY

Sports betting applications filed by the state’s casinos offer a first look at what sports betting might look like in the state. (MassLive)

HOUSING

Restaurant owner Josh Barrington of Great Barrington was looking for shared living space for employees when he came across an inn that seemed to fit what he was looking for. The finances were a challenge until a local affordable housing nonprofit stepped in to purchase the property. (Berkshire Eagle)

EDUCATION

Now that the millionaire’s tax passed, higher education leaders want their share of the money. (MassLive)

East Boston High School is showing signs of success in a district where many schools are struggling. (Boston Globe)

The Fall River School Committee is weighing its options after concerns are raised about a contract the school department has for a special needs student to get services at the Judge Rotenberg Center, a Canton facility that has long been the focus of controversy because of its use of shock treatments on residents. (Herald News)

ARTS/CULTURE

The American Repertory Theater files plans with the city for its new theater and housing complex along North Harvard Street in Allston. (Boston Globe)

Boston theaters are still struggling to recover from COVID, an ArtsBoston survey finds. (GBH)

ENERGY/ENVIRONMENT

Prince William and Princess Kate get a look at the region’s green innovation sector. (Boston Globe)

City officials warn that Boston Harbor’s waters took a hit from sewage overflow from this week’s heavy downpours. (Boston Herald)

Hunters seek to repeal Massachusetts’ ban on hunting on Sundays. (Telegram & Gazette)

CRIMINAL JUSTICE/COURTS

The co-owner of the New England Compounding Center is sentenced to prison for his role in the 2012 fatal meningitis outbreak tied to NECC drugs. (MassLive)

Alex Jones files for bankruptcy less than two months after a jury awarded him and the parent company of his Infowars website to pay $1 billion in damaged to victims of the 2012 Sandy Hook elementary school shooting in Connecticut. (Reuters)

The Royals drop in on Roca in Chelsea to hear about the organization’s approach to combating urban gun violence. (Boston Globe)

MEDIA

Gannett starts another round of staff cuts. (New York Times)

CNN lays off hundreds of staff. (Poynter)