MBTA FARE revenue so far this fiscal year is trending above the pessimistic forecast used to create the transit authority’s budget, but officials say the numbers remain highly variable.
In drafting its fiscal 2022 budget, the T developed three different scenarios for fare revenue, with the first scenario the most optimistic and the third the most conservative. The T based its budget on the most conservative estimate.
In calendar year 2021, the T revenues slowly trended upward, navigating all three fare revenue scenarios. In January and February, revenues came in close to the third, or most conservative, scenario. In March through May, revenues tracked with the middle-of-the-road scenario before rising to the most optimistic level in June and July. From August through November, revenues hovered between the most optimistic and middle-of-the-road scenarios, before slipping slightly into the moderate range in December.
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Bruce Mohl is the editor of CommonWealth magazine. Bruce came to CommonWealth from the Boston Globe, where he spent nearly 30 years in a wide variety of positions covering business and politics. He covered the Massachusetts State House and served as the Globe’s State House bureau chief in the late 1980s. He also reported for the Globe’s Spotlight Team, winning a Loeb award in 1992 for coverage of conflicts of interest in the state’s pension system. He served as the Globe’s political editor in 1994 and went on to cover consumer issues for the newspaper. At CommonWealth, Bruce helped launch the magazine’s website and has written about a wide range of issues with a special focus on politics, tax policy, energy, and gambling. Bruce is a graduate of Ohio Wesleyan University and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He lives in Dorchester.
About Bruce Mohl
Bruce Mohl is the editor of CommonWealth magazine. Bruce came to CommonWealth from the Boston Globe, where he spent nearly 30 years in a wide variety of positions covering business and politics. He covered the Massachusetts State House and served as the Globe’s State House bureau chief in the late 1980s. He also reported for the Globe’s Spotlight Team, winning a Loeb award in 1992 for coverage of conflicts of interest in the state’s pension system. He served as the Globe’s political editor in 1994 and went on to cover consumer issues for the newspaper. At CommonWealth, Bruce helped launch the magazine’s website and has written about a wide range of issues with a special focus on politics, tax policy, energy, and gambling. Bruce is a graduate of Ohio Wesleyan University and the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He lives in Dorchester.
For the first six months of the fiscal year (July-December 2021), fare revenue was nearly $156 million, well ahead of the budgeted amount of $91 million. That’s a gain of 70 percent over what was budgeted, but still only 46 percent of pre-pandemic revenue levels for the month of December.
T officials said on Thursday that fare revenues would end up $123 million above the annual budget forecast if the moderate projection turns out to be accurate, and $222 million if the most optimistic forecast proves to be the correct one.
Using the conservative forecast, the current fare revenue projection for the year ending June 30 is $200 million.
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